Notebook 023-How We're Trading This Week: A Walk Through Strategic Command

As of: Sunday, June 21, 2026
Desk posture: Risk-on, but selective — we buy structure, not momentum.

This is not a stock-picking newsletter. It is a transparent look at how the Onyx desk is operating right now: which names have approved strategic plans, which are watch-only alerts, what price zones matter, and why most of the watchlist is deliberately paused while only two fresh-entry lanes are armed.

If you have seen our dashboard Strategic Command panel, this post is the human-readable version of that screen.

How the desk thinks (in plain English)

Onyx is built around a simple split:

1. Strategic entry — a resting limit buy inside an approved plan zone, with size capped by the plan and checked by Guard before anything hits the broker.
2. Target exit — a limit sell above average entry on a planned trim ladder. We do not automate loss exits.
3. Watch interest — alert-only levels for names we are studying. Alerts inform the journal; they do not execute trades by themselves.

Under our current strategic cutover, fresh risk flows through ratified quarterly plans (*-STRAT-2026Q3) and the always-on evaluator — not through legacy "turn the bot on and hope" daily plans.

This week's capital rules (System-approved):

• Keep at least 20% cash reserve (~$200K minimum at our scale).
• Up to 80% gross deployable, hard cap $600K total exposure.
• Maximum two active strategic entries at once this session.
• No margin, no shorts, no options.

Market read: RISK_ON_SELECTIVE_DIP — the tape can be bullish in semis and AI, but we only deploy when price comes to our levels. Chasing extended names is an explicit failure mode we are avoiding.

What is armed this week

Everything else in Strategic Command is either waiting for price or watching headlines until the plan says otherwise.

Strategic names (approved plans)

SPCX — Recovery monitor (hold, do not add)

Thesis: We hold a post-IPO position in SpaceX (ticker SPCX) as a recovery hold, not a momentum chase. The name went public June 12, ran on IPO and Cursor-deal headlines, then sold off on dilution and financing concerns.

Position: 42 shares at $190 average cost ($8K deployed of a frozen $25K P1 slice).

Strategy:

• Hold only. The system has been firm:no dip-adds, no averaging down.
• Hard invalidation for any new adds: daily structure below $185 pauses all add logic.
• Unlock adds only after repair:
  • Path A: one daily close above $192
  • Path B: two consecutive daily closes above $198.50
• Target exits (above entry only): E1 ~$205 · E2 ~$212 · E3 ~$230 — monitor-only until structure reclaims.

Why it is paused: Price has traded below the $185 gate. B2 build zone ($188–192) is irrelevant until structure proves itself. This is a harvest-and-survive sleeve, not a fresh-risk sleeve.

GOOGL — Active B1 strategic entry

Thesis: Alphabet is spending aggressively on AI compute ($80B+ equity raise, massive cloud backlog), and the stock has slipped off highs — we want first tranche exposure on a defined dip, not a chase into extension.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $368–372 · limit hint ~$370 · P1 $90K
• Invalidation / fail watch: void $352.72; intraday fail watch near $366
• Target exit ladder: E1 $385 · E2 $402 · E3 $408.50

Mode: Lane C wait → armed for Monday when price is in zone and gates are green. We do not pay up outside the band.

Context: Berkshire's $10B placement and cloud backlog support the long thesis; dilution and capex fear explain the pullback we are trying to buy — not ignore.

AAPL — Active B1 pullback-only

Thesis: Apple remains a quality megacap, but memory-cost pressure (Tim Cook flagged "unavoidable" price increases) and supply-chain politics (Intel US fab partnership) make discipline on entry price more important than FOMO.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $293–296 · limit hint ~$294.50 · P1 $75K
• Hard rule: NO BUY above ~$298 — if it never pulls back, we do not participate.
• Target exit ladder: E1 $301.50 · E2 $311 · E3 $317

Mode: Armed for a pullback entry only. Sitting near $297 without flushing into zone = wait.

NVDA — Strategic plan paused (wait for I1)

Thesis: Nvidia remains the AI accelerator anchor; our edge is not calling the top — it is buying the planned shelf after extension fades.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $199–202 · limit ~$200.50 · P1 $80K
• Max chase: $525 — no paying up when extended (~$210+ recently)
• Target exit ladder: E1 $207 · E2 $215 · E3 $225

Mode: Approved plan, auto-entry OFF until flush re-arm. Semis lead the market; MU earnings Wed can move NVDA without us needing to chase.

AMD — Strategic plan paused (wait for I1)

Thesis: AMD is re-rating on Meta/OpenAI infrastructure deals and MI450/H2 2026 narrative, but price has run far aboveour first support shelf.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $498–507 · limit ~$502.50 · P1 $50K
• Max chase: $525
• Reclaim watch: $520 (Path B scout only after confirmation)
• Target exit ladder: E1 $545 · E2 $556 · E3 $575

Mode: Paused — need pullback into the 4h support shelf, not a chase near all-time highs.

META — Strategic plan paused (countertrend scout)

Thesis: Meta's ad machine is still exceptional, but the stock broke the $600 shelf and the market is punishing $125–135B AI capex. We treat this as a countertrend bounce scout, not a trend follow.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $558–568 · limit ~$564 · P1 $25K
• B2 deep value: $522–530 (YTD low cluster near $520.26)
• Void: daily close below $555 pauses interest
• Path B reclaim: $600+ with breadth improvement
• Target exit ladder: E1 $620 · E2 $640 · E3 $662

Mode: Plan approved, but not armed while price sits above T1 (~$575). Need flush or structural reclaim — not mid-range hope.

MSFT — Strategic plan paused (countertrend scout)

Thesis: Microsoft is the weakest Mag 7 YTD story on $190B capex anxiety and slower cloud sentiment. We only want exposure on a defined flush, not on relief bounces at resistance.

Strategy:

• B1 zone: $370–378 · limit ~$374 · P1 $65K
• Invalidation inside zone: $371.66 — break opens air toward ~$356
• Path B reclaim: $395+ before considering broader add logic
• Target exit ladder: E1 $408 · E2 $420 · E3 $436

Mode: Paused until price holds the flush zone with gates green. Tagging $378 ceiling is not automatic permission.

Watch-command names (alert-only, no strategic authority)

These symbols appear in Strategic Command with a WATCH badge. They have desk-reviewed interest zones in strategic_watch_interest.json. Material alerts may wake the desk for human review; they do not submit orders on their own.

AMZN — Base build + Prime Day gate

Thesis: Amazon is consolidating in a June HVN base while AWS fundamentals remain strong. Prime Day (June 23–26) adds event risk.

Interest zones:

• I1 deep dip: $235–236.50
• B2 reset shelf (preferred): $241–243.50
• B3 reclaim path: $245 first · $247.60 confirm (2 closes)
• Void: below $234.70

Gate: No fresh risk during Prime Day unless explicitly event-approved.

RKLB — Nasdaq-100 event watch

Thesis: Rocket Lab joins the Nasdaq-100 effective Monday pre-open — passive index flows can create gap risk. We overlap thematically with SPCX, so size and chase discipline are strict.

Interest zones:

• I1 support retest: $99–102
• I2 base hold: $105–110
• Path B reclaim: $118 · $122 (MA20 repair)
• Max chase: $112 — no gap chase above this line

Gate: Tactical watch only; no second space strategic plan without amendment.

AVGO — Post-earnings base building

Thesis: Broadcom sold off after June earnings despite strong AI silicon demand; we want base proof, not extension chase.

Interest zones:

• B1 deep: $376–382
• B2 preferred: $392–400
• B3 HVN hold: $408–410 (hard limit at $408 max chase)
• Reclaim: $425 structure repair · $452 recovery supply

Gate: At ~$411, we are above the $408 cap — skip until price cooperates.

MU — YES_IF memory supercycle (earnings Wed)

Thesis: Micron is the purest AI memory bottleneck play — HBM sold out, margins at historic highs — but the stock is parabolic. We are conditional, not unconditional.

Interest zones:

• I1 OR/VWAP pullback (primary YES_IF): $895–925
• I2 deep shelf: $780–800
• I3 crisis reset: $695–750
• Max chase: $972 — no chase above while extended
• Void: below $895.50

Catalyst: FQ3 earnings Wednesday, June 24 after close — sector-wide vol. "Buy the disappointment" only if price and SMH gate align; not automatic on a beat.

BE — AI power satellite (parabolic, high risk)

Thesis: Bloom Energy benefited from FERC/data-center power headlines, then mean-reverted hard from ~$329. Parabolic names require violent resets before we care.

Interest zones:

• I1 extension pullback: $297–301
• I2 flush shelf: $183–187 (deep reset only)
• Void: below $296.34 pauses all interest
• Max chase: $318 · Jul earnings gate

Gate: With price below void, interest is paused until base forms.

ARM — Extended architecture story

Thesis: ARM's AI CPU pivot is real, but valuation and FTC scrutiny make extension chase unacceptable.

Interest zones:

• I1 base build only: $393–400.50
• Reclaim runner path: $428+ only after base held
• Max chase: $415

Gate: +71% in 20 days → skip chase; wait for base.

TSLA — Corrective watch, not quarterly core

Thesis: Tesla is in a corrective phase; retained on the watchlist by explicit approval but not quarterly core unless reclaim paths clear.

Interest zones:

• I1 dip: $384–390
• I2 deep shelf: $370–378
• I3 HVN base: $390–395
• Reclaim: $398 SMA repair · $404 confirm
• Void: below $383.23

Gate: Below $404 structure = watch only; Musk/SpaceX headlines are context, not authority.

Calendar that can change the plan

What we are not doing

• Not turning on legacy daily PLAN LIVE for the full watchlist.
• Not chasing extended semis because the narrative is bullish.
• Not adding to SPCX on dips — recovery hold with explicit unlock rules only.
• Not selling below average entry on any automated rail.
• Not treating watch-interest alerts as buy signals without plan + Guard + human approval where required.

Closing thought

The watchlist is large; active risk is narrow on purpose. Two armed strategic entries (GOOGL, AAPL), one recovery hold (SPCX), and a ring of alert-only names waiting for price to meet the homework.

That is the strategy: structure first, size second, narrative last.

This post reflects the desk plan as of 2026-06-21. It is education and process transparency, not investment advice. Past plan behavior does not guarantee future results.