{
"ticker": "TSLA",
"company": "Tesla, Inc.",
"weekLabel": "Week of Feb 10–14, 2026",
"updatedDate": "Feb 13, 2026",
"attribution": "@DarkStoneCapital",
"currentPrice": 416.85,
"thursdayChange": "-2.67%",
"weekReturn": "-0.04%",
"ytdReturn": "+17.1%",
"tags": [
{
"text": "CHINA -45% YOY",
"color": "red"
},
{
"text": "EUROPE CRATER",
"color": "red"
},
{
"text": "SEMI $300K",
"color": "green"
},
{
"text": "DEMAND RISK",
"color": "red"
}
],
"priceData": [
{
"date": "Feb 3",
"close": 418.98,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 4",
"close": 414.49,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 5",
"close": 406.62,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 6",
"close": 397.21,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 7",
"close": 411,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 9",
"close": 410.31,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 10",
"close": 417,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 11",
"close": 428.27,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 12",
"close": 416.85,
"type": "historical"
},
{
"date": "Feb 13",
"close": 415,
"low": 405,
"high": 425,
"type": "forecast"
},
{
"date": "Feb 14",
"close": 410,
"low": 395,
"high": 428,
"type": "forecast"
}
],
"stats": [
{
"label": "THU CLOSE",
"value": "$416.85",
"sub": "-2.67% Thursday",
"color": "red"
},
{
"label": "WEEK",
"value": "-0.04%",
"sub": "Volatile range",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"label": "YTD 2026",
"value": "+17.1%",
"sub": "Still positive",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"label": "P/E RATIO",
"value": "371x",
"sub": "vs S&P 26x",
"color": "red"
},
{
"label": "CHINA JAN",
"value": "-45%",
"sub": "Lowest since '22",
"color": "red"
}
],
"news": [
{
"date": "Feb 12-13",
"headline": "China Sales Crash 45% YoY — Lowest Since November 2022",
"detail": "Tesla domestic retail sales in China collapsed to 18,485 units in January 2026, down 45% year-over-year and 80% from December's 93,843. Xiaomi's YU7 took #1 spot with 37,869 units (2x Tesla's entire domestic volume). Model Y fell to 20th place in China rankings. Exports surged to mask weakness: 73% of Shanghai production shipped overseas. Structural problem: aging lineup losing to fresh Chinese EVs.",
"impact": "BEAR",
"color": "red"
},
{
"date": "Feb 12",
"headline": "European Registrations Crater in Q1 2026 — Market Share Halved",
"detail": "Preliminary Q1 data shows Tesla registrations collapsed across Europe: Norway -88%, Netherlands -67%, France -42%. Market share fell from 11.1% (2024) to 6% (2026). VW Group surpassed Tesla as Europe's largest EV seller. Causes: subsidy cuts, lifecycle carbon rules penalizing Shanghai imports, intense Chinese competition (BYD registrations up 10x in Germany), and 'Elon effect' brand backlash.",
"impact": "BEAR",
"color": "red"
},
{
"date": "Feb 12",
"headline": "Stock Drops $11.42 (-2.67%) as Demand Concerns Mount",
"detail": "TSLA fell to $416.85 Thursday following release of China/Europe demand data. Stock had rallied to $428.27 on Feb 11 before reversing sharply. YTD still +17% but giving back recent gains. Analysts cite aging Model 3/Y lineup, price wars in China, and regulatory headwinds in Europe. Bears gaining momentum.",
"impact": "BEAR",
"color": "red"
},
{
"date": "Feb 10-11",
"headline": "Tesla Semi Pricing Revealed: $300K Long-Range, $260K Standard",
"detail": "Tesla confirmed Semi pricing ahead of 2026 customer deliveries. Long-Range (500 mi): $300K. Standard Range (325 mi): $260K. Undercuts rivals by $145K+. Production ramping at Nevada Gigafactory. Volume deliveries expected Q2-Q3 2026. Positive catalyst but overshadowed by automotive demand weakness.",
"impact": "MIXED",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"date": "Feb 10-11",
"headline": "FSD Moves to Subscription-Only Model — February Cutoff",
"detail": "Tesla confirmed one-time $8K FSD purchase ends Feb 14. After that, $99/month subscription only. Shift aims to increase recurring revenue stream. Current base: 1.1M subscribers (+38% YoY). Deadline could drive last-minute conversions but won't offset automotive headwinds.",
"impact": "MIXED",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"date": "Jan 28",
"headline": "Musk Announces Model S/X Discontinuation for Optimus Production",
"detail": "Q4 earnings call revealed Tesla discontinuing Model S and Model X to repurpose factory space for Optimus humanoid robot production. Radical strategic pivot toward AI/robotics to offset automotive stagnation. Bulls see long-term potential; bears see exit from established product lines with unproven tech ahead.",
"impact": "MIXED",
"color": "yellow"
}
],
"newsAlert": {
"type": "red",
"label": "⚠️ DEMAND CRISIS: CHINA -45%, EUROPE CRATERS, STOCK REVERSES TO $417",
"body": "Tesla faces a dual-front demand collapse. China domestic sales crashed 45% YoY to 18,485 units in January (lowest since Nov 2022), with Xiaomi's YU7 taking #1 spot at 37,869 units. Model Y fell to 20th place in China. Simultaneously, European registrations cratered in Q1: Norway -88%, Netherlands -67%, France -42%. Tesla's European market share halved from 11% to 6% as VW Group and Chinese rivals (BYD up 10x in Germany) capture share. Stock reversed from $428 to $416.85 (-2.67%) Thursday on the news. Semi pricing ($300K) and FSD subscription shift are positive but overshadowed by core automotive weakness. YTD still +17% but structural demand questions mounting."
},
"scenarios": [
{
"name": "BULL",
"target": "$430-450",
"probability": "25%",
"triggers": "China February rebound (Shanghai redirects production locally), Semi fleet orders materialize, FSD subscription surge, Optimus progress update, broader market rally lifts all tech",
"color": "green"
},
{
"name": "BASE",
"target": "$395-420",
"probability": "50%",
"triggers": "Demand stabilizes but doesn't recover, China/Europe weakness persists, Semi on track but slow ramp, stock consolidates around $410-415 range, wait for Q1 earnings clarity",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"name": "BEAR",
"target": "$360-395",
"probability": "25%",
"triggers": "China/Europe demand accelerates downward, Q1 guidance disappointing, broader EV market share loss continues, analyst downgrades pile up, tech sector correction",
"color": "red"
}
],
"wildcard": {
"label": "WILDCARD: Q1 2026 EARNINGS GUIDE (APR 20)",
"body": "All eyes on Q1 earnings call (estimated Apr 20). If Tesla reports sub-350K deliveries globally and guides soft for Q2, the automotive bear case accelerates. Conversely, if management announces major Optimus commercialization timeline, Semi fleet contracts (PepsiCo, UPS, Walmart), or FSD approval in Europe, it could shift narrative back to tech/robotics story. Current valuation (371x P/E) demands growth story. Automotive weakness must be offset by credible progress on autonomy, robotics, or energy."
},
"analysts": [
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley — $550",
"note": "Overweight. AI/robotics potential justifies premium",
"color": "green"
},
{
"name": "Baird — $548",
"note": "Outperform. '2026 = year of robotaxi announcements'",
"color": "green"
},
{
"name": "Wedbush — $550",
"note": "Outperform. Demand concerns 'transitory'",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"name": "Consensus — $393",
"note": "Hold. 10 Buy, 14 Hold, 8 Sell (shifting bearish)",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"name": "JPMorgan — $145",
"note": "Sell. 'Zero FCF next 2 years, auto business falling apart'",
"color": "red"
}
],
"catalysts": [
{
"item": "China/Europe Demand Collapse",
"detail": "China -45% YoY, Europe registrations crater. Structural share loss to Chinese EVs and VW Group.",
"impact": "HIGH",
"color": "red"
},
{
"item": "Q1 2026 Delivery Numbers (Early April)",
"detail": "Critical test: Will global deliveries fall below 350K? Demand trajectory determines stock direction.",
"impact": "HIGH",
"color": "red"
},
{
"item": "FSD Subscription Deadline (Feb 14)",
"detail": "One-time $8K purchase ends. Last-minute conversions could boost recurring revenue narrative.",
"impact": "MED",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"item": "Tesla Semi Production Ramp",
"detail": "$300K pricing confirmed. Q2-Q3 volume deliveries. Fleet orders from major logistics players TBD.",
"impact": "MED",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"item": "Optimus Robotics Pivot",
"detail": "Model S/X discontinued to make room for humanoid robot production. Unproven tech, long-term bet.",
"impact": "MED",
"color": "yellow"
},
{
"item": "Technical Support at $395-405",
"detail": "Key support zone. Break below could trigger $360 retest. Resistance at $428 (recent high).",
"impact": "MED",
"color": "red"
}
],
"keyDates": [
{
"date": "Feb 14",
"text": "FSD one-time purchase ends — subscription-only after"
},
{
"date": "Early Apr",
"text": "Q1 2026 delivery numbers (critical demand test)"
},
{
"date": "Apr 20 (est)",
"text": "Q1 2026 Earnings Call"
},
{
"date": "Q2-Q3 2026",
"text": "Tesla Semi volume customer deliveries begin"
},
{
"date": "Mid-2026",
"text": "SpaceX-xAI IPO targeting $1.25T valuation"
}
],
"bottomLine": "Tesla faces a critical demand crisis on two fronts. China domestic sales collapsed 45% YoY to 18,485 units in January (lowest since Nov 2022), while European registrations cratered across key markets (Norway -88%, Netherlands -67%, France -42%). Market share in Europe halved from 11% to 6%. Stock reversed from $428 to $416.85 (-2.67%) Thursday as the data hit. Bulls point to Semi pricing ($300K, Q2-Q3 deliveries), FSD subscription shift, and Optimus pivot as long-term catalysts. Bears cite aging Model 3/Y lineup losing to fresh Chinese competition (Xiaomi YU7 outselling Model Y 2:1), price wars eroding margins, and 371x P/E requiring growth that's not materializing. Q1 delivery numbers (early April) are make-or-break. If Tesla can't stabilize demand and show credible progress on autonomy/robotics, the 'Tesla as tech company' valuation multiple faces serious risk. YTD +17% but momentum shifting bearish."
}